Perugia 1-3 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Perugia at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Perugia vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Curi plays host to Perugia versus Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Wednesday 5 April 2023 at 19:15 UTC.
Form
Perugia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Curi.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reggina's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Perugia. A 0.80 PPG lead over Reggina (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Perugia 2W, Reggina 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Perugia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 47% versus Reggina 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 35% | Reggina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.51 xG and Reggina 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 1.155 / defence 0.939 | Reggina attack 1.009 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 0.973. Data: 68 Perugia games / 68 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 50% | Draw 28% | Reggina 22%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Reggina 4.55. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 40% | Reggina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Apr 2023, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 50% | Draw 28% | Reggina 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Perugia 1.51 / Reggina 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 1.155 / def 0.939 | Reggina attack 1.009 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.175 / away 0.973 • Poisson stance: Perugia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Reggina xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Reggina kick off?
Perugia vs Reggina kicked off at 19:15 on Wednesday 5 April 2023 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Reggina?
Perugia 1 - 3 Reggina.
Where is Perugia vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Reggina part of?
Perugia vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 50% chance of winning, Reggina a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Perugia and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Reggina?
Record (3 meetings): Perugia 2W | Draws 0 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Perugia and Reggina in?
Perugia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Reggina (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Perugia's attack rating (1.16) and Reggina's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (1.01x) against Perugia's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.59
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.43
0.92
Reggina xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
5%
20.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Perugia and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Perugia and 0.92 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Perugia have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 22W 23D 23L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Reggina's form line: 26W 12D 30L from 68 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Perugia against 1.32 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Perugia have posted 1.39 PPG from 33 outings (11W 13D 9L).
On the road, Reggina have gone 10W 7D 16L from 33 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Perugia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.03 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Current Season
Reggina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Reggina in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 22W 23D 23L in their last 68 games (1.31 PPG), while Reggina have gone 26W 12D 30L in their last 68 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Reggina away?
Perugia's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.39 PPG; Reggina away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Perugia or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Reggina in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Perugia have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Perugia
0
Draws
2
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 2, Reggina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2023, when Perugia 1-3 Reggina.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Perugia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 46%, Reggina 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Perugia and 30% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 27% of games; Reggina in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Perugia's recent matches and 36% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Perugia's recent games and 30% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Reggina tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Reggina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggina cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Perugia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Perugia 1-3 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.51 xG and Reggina 0.92 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Reggina outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Reggina attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 50% | Draw 28% | Reggina 22%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Reggina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 35%, Reggina 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggina's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.31 PPG, Reggina 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.