Modena 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Pisa (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Modena against 1.60 for Pisa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 2–4 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Pisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Pisa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.84 xG and Pisa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.011 / defence 1.182 | Pisa attack 1.075 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 0.978. Pisa's defence strength of 0.714 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 Modena games / 66 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 24% | Draw 31% | Pisa 45%. Fair-value odds: Modena 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Pisa 2.22. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 24% | Draw 31% | Pisa 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Modena 0.84 / Pisa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.011 / def 1.182 | Pisa attack 1.075 / def 0.714 | league avg home 1.167 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Pisa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Pisa xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Pisa kick off?
Modena vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Pisa?
Modena 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Modena vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Pisa part of?
Modena vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 24% chance of winning, Pisa a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Modena and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Modena and Pisa in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.01) and Pisa's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.07x) against Modena's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
24%
4.14
31%
3.20
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Modena xG
Total xG
2.08
1.24
Pisa xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 15.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Modena and 1.24 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena's recent record stands at 10W 5D 13L from 28 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 6L across 28 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Modena against 1.50 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Modena have managed 5W 4D 4L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 4W 8D 1L across 13 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Pisa in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Pisa have gone 10W 12D 6L in their last 28 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.46 PPG; Pisa away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Modena or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Pisa in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Modena have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Modena
1
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 4, Pisa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Pisa 1-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Pisa?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 54%, Pisa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Modena and 31% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Pisa in 54%; Pisa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Modena's recent matches and 46% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Modena's recent games and 31% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Pisa tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Pisa in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.84 xG and Pisa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.01 / defence 1.18 against Pisa attack 1.07 / defence 0.71, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 24% | Draw 31% | Pisa 45%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Pisa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.25 PPG, Pisa 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.