Ascoli 0-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to face Ascoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ascoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Venezia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Ascoli against 1.00 for Venezia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ascoli 1W, Venezia 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Ascoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Venezia — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 49% versus Venezia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 39% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.00 xG and Venezia 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.750 / defence 0.988 | Venezia attack 0.856 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 0.959. Ascoli's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Ascoli games / 29 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 37% | Draw 35% | Venezia 27%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Venezia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 40% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 37% | Draw 35% | Venezia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Ascoli 1.00 / Venezia 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.750 / def 0.988 | Venezia attack 0.856 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.179 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Venezia xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Venezia kick off?
Ascoli vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Venezia?
Ascoli 0 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Ascoli vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Venezia part of?
Ascoli vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 37% chance of winning, Venezia a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ascoli and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Venezia in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Venezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.86x) against Ascoli's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
37%
2.67
35%
2.85
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.81
0.81
Venezia xG
2.67
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.81 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ascoli's recent record stands at 27W 17D 23L from 67 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 36L across 67 games — 0.85 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 10W 11D 12L from 33 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 7W 8D 18L across 33 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.96 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 61%.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Venezia in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 27W 17D 23L in their last 67 games (1.46 PPG), while Venezia have gone 13W 18D 36L in their last 67 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Venezia away?
Ascoli's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.24 PPG; Venezia away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Venezia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 48%, Venezia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ascoli) and 46% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 36% of games; Venezia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ascoli's recent matches and 54% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ascoli's recent games and 46% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Venezia tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Venezia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Ascoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Ascoli 0-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.00 xG and Venezia 0.81 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Venezia attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 37% | Draw 35% | Venezia 27%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 39%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.