Cosenza 1-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Spal make the trip to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to face Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 March 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spal (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Spal away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cosenza, 2 for Spal and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–5 with Spal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cosenza — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Spal — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Spal 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 42% | Spal 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.17 xG and Spal 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.901 / defence 0.960 | Spal attack 0.837 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 0.960. Data: 66 Cosenza games / 66 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 33% | Spal 23%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Spal 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 60% | Spal 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 33% | Spal 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Cosenza 1.17 / Spal 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.901 / def 0.960 | Spal attack 0.837 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.159 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Spal xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Spal kick off?
Cosenza vs Spal kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Spal?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Spal.
Where is Cosenza vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Spal part of?
Cosenza vs Spal is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 44% chance of winning, Spal a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cosenza and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Spal?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Spal 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Spal in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Spal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Spal's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.84x) against Cosenza's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
44%
2.28
33%
2.99
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.94
0.77
Spal xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.77 for Spal, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cosenza come into this having played 66 games, going 15W 19D 32L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Spal sit at 1.06 PPG from 66 outings (15W 25D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Cosenza against 1.06 for Spal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cosenza's home form reads 12W 8D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Spal have taken 1.06 points per game from 32 outings (7W 13D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.17 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Spal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Spal in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 15W 19D 32L in their last 66 games (0.97 PPG), while Spal have gone 15W 25D 26L in their last 66 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Spal away?
Cosenza's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.38 PPG; Spal away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spal won 5-0 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cosenza
1
Draws
2
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Spal have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Cosenza 1-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Spal?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 53%, Spal 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cosenza) and 38% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 31% of games; Spal in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cosenza's recent matches and 44% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cosenza's recent games and 38% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Spal tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Spal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Spal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Spal 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.17 xG and Spal 0.77 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Spal attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 44% | Draw 33% | Spal 23%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 42%, Spal 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Spal's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 0.97 PPG, Spal 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.