Frosinone 1-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Frosinone host Pisa at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Frosinone at 1.40 PPG versus Pisa's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Frosinone, 0 for Pisa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 49% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 51% | Pisa 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.86 xG and Pisa 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.359 / defence 0.881 | Pisa attack 0.732 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.080. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Frosinone games / 37 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 64% | Draw 24% | Pisa 12%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Pisa 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 40% | Pisa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 64% | Draw 24% | Pisa 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 43% | xG Frosinone 1.86 / Pisa 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.359 / def 0.881 | Pisa attack 0.732 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Pisa xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Pisa kick off?
Frosinone vs Pisa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Pisa?
Frosinone 1 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Frosinone vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Pisa part of?
Frosinone vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 64% chance of winning, Pisa a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Frosinone and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Pisa in?
Frosinone (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
64%
1.56
24%
4.21
12%
8.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.56
0.70
Pisa xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
8.24
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
2%
53.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.70 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone come into this having played 37 games, going 15W 13D 9L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.73 PPG from 37 outings (17W 13D 7L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 1.57 PPG, Pisa on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Frosinone's home form reads 10W 6D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.24 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Pisa in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 15W 13D 9L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Pisa have gone 17W 13D 7L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Pisa away?
Frosinone's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.00 PPG; Pisa away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Pisa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Pisa runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Pisa 1-0 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 50%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Frosinone) and 28% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Pisa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Frosinone's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Frosinone's recent games and 28% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Pisa tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pisa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Frosinone 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Frosinone 1-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.86 xG and Pisa 0.70 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pisa outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.36 / defence 0.88 against Pisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 64% | Draw 24% | Pisa 12%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Pisa 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.57 PPG, Pisa 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.