Frosinone 4-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 43%, yet in-form Monza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Frosinone vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 36 as Frosinone welcome Monza to Stadio Benito Stirpe. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Frosinone's home record at Stadio Benito Stirpe: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Monza have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Monza's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Monza are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Frosinone, 1 for Monza and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–3 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Frosinone in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Monza in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 49% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 49% | Monza 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.41 xG and Monza 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.230 / defence 0.879 | Monza attack 1.090 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.073. Data: 35 Frosinone games / 35 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 43% | Draw 31% | Monza 25%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Monza 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 40% | Monza 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 43% | Draw 31% | Monza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Frosinone 1.41 / Monza 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.230 / def 0.879 | Monza attack 1.090 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Monza xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Monza kick off?
Frosinone vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Monza?
Frosinone 4 - 1 Monza.
Where is Frosinone vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Monza part of?
Frosinone vs Monza is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 43% chance of winning, Monza a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Frosinone and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Monza in?
Frosinone (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Monza (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.23) and Monza's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
43%
2.30
31%
3.20
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.43
1.03
Monza xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
6%
16.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.03 for Monza, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 14W 13D 8L from 35 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 7L across 35 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 1.57 PPG, Monza on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 9W 6D 2L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 6W 6D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.60 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Monza in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Monza in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 14W 13D 8L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Monza have gone 18W 10D 7L in their last 35 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Monza away?
Frosinone's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.94 PPG; Monza away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Monza in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Frosinone won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Frosinone's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Frosinone
1
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Monza have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Monza 2-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 47%, Monza 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Frosinone) and 41% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Monza in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Frosinone's recent matches and 53% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Frosinone's recent games and 41% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Monza tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Monza in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Monza 4-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.41 xG and Monza 1.03 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.23 / defence 0.88 against Monza attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 43% | Draw 31% | Monza 25%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 49%, Monza 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.57 PPG, Monza 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.