Sampdoria 3-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Palermo in Serie B (matchday 24). Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Palermo are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sampdoria's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) — Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Palermo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sampdoria, 2 for Palermo and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Dec 2025, ended Sampdoria 0–1 Palermo — a Palermo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palermo — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 53% versus Palermo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 39% | Palermo 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sampdoria surrender their half-time lead 64% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.97 xG and Palermo 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.946 / defence 0.944 | Palermo attack 1.120 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.052. Palermo bring a tight defence (rating 0.792, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sampdoria's projected output down. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 61 games and Palermo's last 61.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 30% | Draw 32% | Palermo 38%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.29 | Draw 3.14 | Palermo 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 60% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 30% | Draw 32% | Palermo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Sampdoria 0.97 / Palermo 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.946 / def 0.944 | Palermo attack 1.120 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Palermo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Palermo xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sampdoria vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Sampdoria vs Palermo kick off?
Sampdoria vs Palermo kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Sampdoria 3 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Sampdoria vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Palermo part of?
Sampdoria vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 30% chance of winning, Palermo a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sampdoria and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Sampdoria vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.95) and Palermo's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.12x) against Sampdoria's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Sampdoria's last 61 games and Palermo's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
30%
3.29
32%
3.14
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.08
1.11
Palermo xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sampdoria vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.11 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 15W 24D 23L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Palermo's form line: 26W 18D 18L from 62 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 31 home games (12W 10D 9L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 10W 10D 11L from their last 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.42 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Palermo
Blended
Sampdoria (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sampdoria
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Sampdoria vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Sampdoria and Palermo in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 15W 24D 23L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while Palermo have gone 26W 18D 18L in their last 62 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Palermo away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.48 PPG; Palermo away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Palermo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Sampdoria and Palermo, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
4
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Sampdoria vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Palermo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sampdoria have won 1, Palermo have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Palermo 3-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 36%, Palermo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Sampdoria) and 52% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 36% of games; Palermo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sampdoria vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sampdoria and Palermo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 61% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sampdoria and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Sampdoria's recent games and 52% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 77% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Palermo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Palermo finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.97 xG and Palermo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Palermo attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 30% | Draw 32% | Palermo 38%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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