Palermo 3-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Empoli travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Empoli have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Palermo have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Palermo's 10% rate and Empoli's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Palermo, 0 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Empoli trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 50% versus Empoli 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 43% | Empoli 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.62 xG and Empoli 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.113 / defence 0.706 | Empoli attack 0.788 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.036. Palermo's defence rating of 0.706 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Palermo games / 22 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 62% | Draw 25% | Empoli 12%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Empoli 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 10% | Empoli 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 62% | Draw 25% | Empoli 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 36% | xG Palermo 1.62 / Empoli 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.113 / def 0.706 | Empoli attack 0.788 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Palermo (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Empoli xG
36%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Empoli kick off?
Palermo vs Empoli kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Empoli?
Palermo 3 - 2 Empoli.
Where is Palermo vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Empoli part of?
Palermo vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 62% chance of winning, Empoli a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Palermo and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Palermo and Empoli in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palermo's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
62%
1.60
25%
3.94
12%
8.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.20
0.58
Empoli xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
8.16
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
2%
41.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Palermo and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Palermo and 0.58 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 25W 18D 17L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli's form line: 13W 20D 27L from 60 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (15W 7D 7L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 8W 6D 15L from 29 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.98 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Empoli in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 25W 18D 17L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 20D 27L in their last 60 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Empoli away?
Palermo's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.79 PPG; Empoli away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Palermo or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Empoli in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Empoli runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Palermo
0
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 2, Empoli have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Palermo 3-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Empoli?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 34%, Empoli 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Palermo) and 59% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Empoli in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Palermo's recent matches and 59% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Palermo's recent games and 59% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Empoli tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Empoli in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Empoli 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Empoli 3-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.62 xG and Empoli 0.58 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli outscored their 0.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.11 / defence 0.71 against Empoli attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 62% | Draw 25% | Empoli 12%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 43%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.