Sampdoria 1-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Palermo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Palermo are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Palermo in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Palermo — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 50% versus Palermo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 44% | Palermo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.81 xG and Palermo 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.945 / defence 1.263 | Palermo attack 1.241 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.220. Palermo's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Sampdoria games / 48 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 14% | Draw 25% | Palermo 62%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 7.14 | Draw 4.00 | Palermo 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 70% | Palermo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 14% | Draw 25% | Palermo 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Sampdoria 0.81 / Palermo 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.945 / def 1.263 | Palermo attack 1.241 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Palermo (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Palermo xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Palermo kick off?
Sampdoria vs Palermo kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Sampdoria vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Palermo part of?
Sampdoria vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 14% chance of winning, Palermo a 62% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sampdoria and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Palermo in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.94) and Palermo's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.24x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 11/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
14%
7.39
25%
4.01
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.73
1.91
Palermo xG
7.39
14%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
15%
6.77
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
2%
50.06
27%
3.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.91 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 5W 13D 30L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 17W 18D 13L from 48 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 0.57 PPG from 23 outings (2W 7D 14L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 7W 8D 8L from 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.35 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Palermo in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 5W 13D 30L in their last 48 games (0.58 PPG), while Palermo have gone 17W 18D 13L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.57 PPG; Palermo away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
4
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Palermo?
From 7 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Palermo have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Sampdoria 3-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 48%, Palermo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sampdoria) and 48% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 61% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sampdoria's recent games and 48% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Palermo tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Palermo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Palermo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.81 xG and Palermo 1.91 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palermo landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Palermo attack 1.24 / defence 0.79, drawn from 11/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 14% | Draw 25% | Palermo 62%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Sampdoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 44%, Palermo 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Palermo's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.