Reggiana 1-1 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 12 as Reggiana welcome Lecco to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggiana have posted 1W 3D 1L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lecco — All Games: 2W 1D 6L from 9 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.78 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Lecco have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.78 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Reggiana carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.62 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.78. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Reggiana register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lecco in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Reggiana trading profile (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lecco trading profile (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 44% versus Lecco 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 56% | Lecco 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.17 xG and Lecco 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.925 / defence 1.025 | Lecco attack 0.850 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.200. Data: 11 Reggiana games / 9 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 37% | Draw 32% | Lecco 31%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Lecco 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reggiana as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Reggiana 60% | Lecco 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 37% | Draw 32% | Lecco 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Reggiana 1.17 / Lecco 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.925 / def 1.025 | Lecco attack 0.850 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lecco xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Lecco kick off?
Reggiana vs Lecco kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Lecco?
Reggiana 1 - 1 Lecco.
Where is Reggiana vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Lecco part of?
Reggiana vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 37% chance of winning, Lecco a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reggiana and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Lecco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggiana and Lecco in?
Reggiana (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Lecco (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.89 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.93x the league average against Lecco's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
37%
2.71
32%
3.10
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.21
1.05
Lecco xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.05 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggiana's recent record stands at 3W 4D 2L from 9 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecco, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 6L across 9 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reggiana by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecco heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecco's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.78 PPG overall record — Lecco travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggiana are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 1.00 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Lecco in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Lecco have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Lecco away?
Lecco's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.20 PPG; Lecco away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Lecco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lecco in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
1
Draws
1
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Lecco have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Lecco 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Lecco?
Lecco have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 60%, Lecco 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Reggiana and 80% for Lecco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggiana keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lecco in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Lecco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Reggiana's games and 60% of Lecco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Reggiana's matches and 80% of Lecco's.
Do Reggiana and Lecco tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lecco in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Lecco share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana and Lecco finished level at 1-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.17 xG and Lecco 1.05 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Lecco attack 0.85 / defence 1.16, drawn from 11/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 37% | Draw 32% | Lecco 31%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 56%, Lecco 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecco's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.