Palermo 1-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Wednesday 8 November 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palermo have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Renzo Barbera this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brescia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Palermo's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Brescia's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Palermo, 0 for Brescia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Palermo — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Brescia — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 55% versus Brescia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palermo 45% | Brescia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.28 xG and Brescia 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.100 / defence 1.142 | Brescia attack 0.994 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.180. Data: 49 Palermo games / 48 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 34% | Draw 30% | Brescia 36%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Brescia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palermo (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 70% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 34% | Draw 30% | Brescia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Palermo 1.28 / Brescia 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.100 / def 1.142 | Brescia attack 0.994 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Brescia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Brescia xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Brescia kick off?
Palermo vs Brescia kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 8 November 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Brescia?
Palermo 1 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Palermo vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Brescia part of?
Palermo vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 34% chance of winning, Brescia a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Palermo and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Brescia?
Record (2 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 2 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Palermo and Brescia in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Brescia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Palermo's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.99x) against Palermo's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
34%
2.95
30%
3.36
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.62
1.34
Brescia xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Palermo and 1.34 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 17W 18D 14L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 11W 18D 20L from 49 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Palermo against 1.04 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (10W 9D 5L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 5W 8D 11L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.90 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Brescia in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 17W 18D 14L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Brescia have gone 11W 18D 20L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Brescia away?
Palermo's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.62 PPG; Brescia away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Palermo
2
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 2, Brescia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Palermo 1-0 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 50%, Brescia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Palermo) and 46% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 29% of games; Brescia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palermo's recent matches and 46% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Palermo's recent games and 46% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Brescia tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Brescia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Brescia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Brescia 1-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.28 xG and Brescia 1.34 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brescia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.10 / defence 1.14 against Brescia attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 34% | Draw 30% | Brescia 36%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 45%, Brescia 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Brescia's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.41 PPG, Brescia 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.