Modena 0-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Modena welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Modena have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Modena have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sampdoria — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Modena are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Sampdoria trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 54% versus Sampdoria 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 44% | Sampdoria 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.29 xG and Sampdoria 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.961 / defence 0.987 | Sampdoria attack 0.850 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.160. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Modena's projected output up. Data: built from Modena's last 50 games and Sampdoria's last 12.
Result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 27%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.37 | Draw 3.21 | Sampdoria 3.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Modena 50% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Modena 1.29 / Sampdoria 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.961 / def 0.987 | Sampdoria attack 0.850 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Modena (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sampdoria xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Modena vs Sampdoria kick off?
Modena vs Sampdoria kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Sampdoria?
Modena 0 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Modena vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Sampdoria part of?
Modena vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 42% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Modena vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Modena's attack at 0.96x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 50 games and Sampdoria's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.21
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Modena xG
Total xG
2.26
0.97
Sampdoria xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Modena and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Modena and 0.97 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena come into this having played 50 games, going 19W 13D 18L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 0.62 PPG from 50 outings (6W 13D 31L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Modena's home form reads 10W 9D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 0.60 points per game from their last 25 away games (3W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.72 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
Modena (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Modena vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 19W 13D 18L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 6W 13D 31L in their last 50 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Sampdoria away?
Modena's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.56 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Modena or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Modena's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
4
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sampdoria?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 1, Sampdoria have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Modena and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 48%, Sampdoria 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Modena) and 48% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 28% of games; Sampdoria in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Sampdoria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Modena's recent matches and 52% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Modena's recent games and 48% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Modena's recent matches and 72% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Modena 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.29 xG and Sampdoria 0.97 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Modena fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sampdoria outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Sampdoria attack 0.85 / defence 1.21, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 42% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 27%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Sampdoria 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sampdoria's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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