Palermo 1-2 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Lecco travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecco stand at 1W 1D 6L from 8 Serie B matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lecco have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Palermo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Palermo in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lecco in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 50% versus Lecco 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 62% | Lecco 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.56 xG and Lecco 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.178 / defence 1.028 | Lecco attack 0.757 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.194. Lecco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Palermo games / 8 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 50% | Draw 29% | Lecco 20%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Lecco 5.00. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 60% | Lecco 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 50% | Draw 29% | Lecco 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Palermo 1.56 / Lecco 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.178 / def 1.028 | Lecco attack 0.757 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Palermo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Lecco xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Lecco kick off?
Palermo vs Lecco kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Lecco?
Palermo 1 - 2 Lecco.
Where is Palermo vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Lecco part of?
Palermo vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 50% chance of winning, Lecco a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Palermo and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Lecco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Lecco in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Lecco (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.18x the league average against Lecco's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.39
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.49
0.93
Lecco xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
23.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Palermo and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Palermo and 0.93 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palermo's recent record stands at 6W 1D 1L from 8 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecco, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 6L across 8 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 1.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecco heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.38 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Lecco's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.50 PPG overall record — Lecco travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 0.88 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Lecco in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 games (2.38 PPG), while Lecco have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Lecco away?
Palermo's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.75 PPG; Lecco away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Palermo or Lecco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lecco in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Lecco runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Palermo
0
Draws
1
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Lecco have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when Lecco 0-1 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 50%, Lecco 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Palermo and 75% for Lecco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecco in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Lecco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Lecco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Palermo's matches and 75% of Lecco's.
Do Palermo and Lecco tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lecco in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecco defy the odds to beat Palermo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecco beat Palermo 1-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.56 xG and Lecco 0.93 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lecco outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against Lecco attack 0.76 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 50% | Draw 29% | Lecco 20%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Lecco win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 62%, Lecco 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecco's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Lecco winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palermo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lecco (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.