Bari 1-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bari face Ascoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bari host Ascoli at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bari stand at 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bari at home: 2W 7D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Ascoli have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Ascoli have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bari at 1.30 PPG versus Ascoli's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Bari have won 1, Ascoli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2023, ended Bari 1–0 Ascoli — a Bari win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Ascoli in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 49% versus Ascoli 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 31% | Ascoli 39%). Note also that Ascoli surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Bari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.36 xG and Ascoli 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.032 / defence 0.929 | Ascoli attack 0.898 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.216. Ascoli's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bari's projected output up. Data: built from Bari's last 49 games and Ascoli's last 49.
Result probabilities: Bari 43% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 26%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.35 | Draw 3.16 | Ascoli 3.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bari's last 10 home games and Ascoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bari 60% (last 10 home games) | Ascoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 43% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Bari 1.36 / Ascoli 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.032 / def 0.929 | Ascoli attack 0.898 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Bari (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Ascoli xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Ascoli FAQs
What time does Bari vs Ascoli kick off?
Bari vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Ascoli?
Bari 1 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Bari vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Ascoli part of?
Bari vs Ascoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 43% chance of winning, Ascoli a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bari and Ascoli will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Bari vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.03) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 49 games and Ascoli's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.16
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Bari xG
Total xG
2.38
1.01
Ascoli xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
7%
15.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Ascoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bari and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bari and 1.01 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 19W 20D 10L from 49 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 20L across 49 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.57 PPG, Ascoli on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 8W 12D 4L from their last 24 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 6W 7D 11L across their last 24 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.08 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
Bari (Home) vs Ascoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Bari vs Ascoli Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 19W 20D 10L in their last 49 games (1.57 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 15W 14D 20L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Ascoli away?
Bari's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.50 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bari or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ascoli in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bari's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bari
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Ascoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Ascoli?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bari and Ascoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 January 2024: Ascoli 2-2 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Ascoli?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 50%, Ascoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Bari and 33% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bari have failed to score in 29% of games; Ascoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Ascoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Ascoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bari's recent matches and 46% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bari and Ascoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bari's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Ascoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Bari's recent matches and 67% of Ascoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Ascoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Ascoli 1-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.36 xG and Ascoli 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Ascoli attack 0.90 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 43% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 26%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 31%, Ascoli 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ascoli's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.57 PPG, Ascoli 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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