Sudtirol 3-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Sampdoria in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Marco Druso. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sampdoria (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Sudtirol, 0.90 for Sampdoria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 44% versus Sampdoria 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 27% | Sampdoria 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.14 xG and Sampdoria 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.001 / defence 0.957 | Sampdoria attack 0.847 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.178. Data: 47 Sudtirol games / 10 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 35% | Sampdoria 28%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Sampdoria 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 30% | Sampdoria 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 35% | Sampdoria 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Sudtirol 1.14 / Sampdoria 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.001 / def 0.957 | Sampdoria attack 0.847 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sampdoria xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Sampdoria kick off?
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Sudtirol 3 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Sudtirol vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Sampdoria part of?
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 37% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Sampdoria in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (1.00) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.85x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 47/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
37%
2.69
35%
2.85
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.09
0.95
Sampdoria xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.95 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 20D 9L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 0.58 PPG from 48 outings (5W 13D 30L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sudtirol's home form reads 9W 12D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 0.62 points per game from 24 outings (3W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.71 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 19W 20D 9L in their last 48 games (1.60 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 5W 13D 30L in their last 48 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Sampdoria away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.62 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sudtirol
0
Draws
2
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 4, Sampdoria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Sampdoria?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 54%, Sampdoria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sudtirol) and 46% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sampdoria in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 50% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sudtirol's recent games and 46% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Sampdoria 3-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.14 xG and Sampdoria 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Sampdoria attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 37% | Draw 35% | Sampdoria 28%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 27%, Sampdoria 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Sampdoria's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.