Cremonese 3-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 37%, yet in-form Cremonese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cremonese vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Spezia travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cremonese are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cremonese have won 1, Spezia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Spezia in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 57% versus Spezia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 49% | Spezia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.09 xG and Spezia 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.737 / defence 1.078 | Spezia attack 0.937 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.200. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Cremonese games / 10 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 32% | Spezia 37%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Spezia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Spezia 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 32% | Spezia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Cremonese 1.09 / Spezia 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.737 / def 1.078 | Spezia attack 0.937 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Spezia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Spezia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Spezia kick off?
Cremonese vs Spezia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Spezia?
Cremonese 3 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Cremonese vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Spezia part of?
Cremonese vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 31% chance of winning, Spezia a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cremonese and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Spezia?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 1 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Spezia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Spezia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.74x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
31%
3.22
32%
3.16
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.30
1.21
Spezia xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.21 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 49 games, going 9W 16D 24L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.80 PPG from 49 outings (7W 18D 24L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.88 PPG, Spezia on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 4W 7D 13L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.67 points per game from 24 outings (3W 7D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.82 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Spezia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 9W 16D 24L in their last 49 games (0.88 PPG), while Spezia have gone 7W 18D 24L in their last 49 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Spezia away?
Cremonese's home record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.79 PPG; Spezia away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2023, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Cremonese
3
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Spezia?
From 8 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 5, Spezia have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Spezia 2-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Spezia?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 42%, Spezia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cremonese) and 50% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 46% of games; Spezia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cremonese's recent matches and 46% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cremonese's recent games and 50% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Spezia tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Spezia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Spezia 3-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.09 xG and Spezia 1.21 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Spezia attack 0.94 / defence 1.35, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 31% | Draw 32% | Spezia 37%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 49%, Spezia 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 0.88 PPG, Spezia 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.