Modena 1-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Modena at 47%, yet in-form Sampdoria provide a compelling counter-argument — this Modena vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Modena welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Modena have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Modena have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Modena are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sampdoria — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sampdoria are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Modena have won 1, Sampdoria 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2025, ended Modena 2–0 Sampdoria — a Modena win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Modena trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Sampdoria trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 55% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 47% | Sampdoria 37%). Note also that Sampdoria surrender HT leads in 64% of cases while Modena recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.24 xG and Sampdoria 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.935 / defence 0.957 | Sampdoria attack 0.758 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.016. Sampdoria's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Modena's last 60 games and Sampdoria's last 60.

Result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 21%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.11 | Draw 3.20 | Sampdoria 4.68. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sampdoria (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Modena's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Modena 50% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 60% (last 10 away games).

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