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Poisson model rates Spezia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 18:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Spezia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Virtus Entella's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Spezia's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Virtus Entella's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Spezia 1W, Virtus Entella 0W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Spezia winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 50% versus Virtus Entella 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spezia 36% | Virtus Entella 27%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.30 xG and Virtus Entella 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.819 / defence 1.069 | Virtus Entella attack 0.688 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.048. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Spezia games / 22 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Spezia 48% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 22%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Virtus Entella 4.55. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 60% | Virtus Entella 40%.

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