Genoa 4-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cosenza make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Monday 6 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cosenza have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Genoa's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Genoa lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Cosenza — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 40% versus Cosenza 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 38% | Cosenza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.91 xG and Cosenza 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.022 / defence 0.707 | Cosenza attack 0.752 / defence 1.644. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 0.981. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.644 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Genoa's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Genoa games / 65 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 70% | Draw 21% | Cosenza 9%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.43 | Draw 4.76 | Cosenza 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Genoa (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cosenza's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 20% | Cosenza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 70% | Draw 21% | Cosenza 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 35% | xG Genoa 1.91 / Cosenza 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.022 / def 0.707 | Cosenza attack 0.752 / def 1.644 | league avg home 1.136 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Genoa (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Cosenza xG
35%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Cosenza kick off?
Genoa vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Cosenza?
Genoa 4 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Genoa vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Cosenza part of?
Genoa vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 70% chance of winning, Cosenza a 9% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Genoa and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Genoa and Cosenza in?
Genoa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.64x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.75x) against Genoa's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.52.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 3-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
70%
1.43
21%
4.67
9%
11.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
16.0%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.43
0.52
Cosenza xG
1.43
70%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
11.71
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
42%
2.41
1%
79.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 16.0 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Genoa and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Genoa and 0.52 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa's recent record stands at 17W 25D 23L from 65 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 15W 19D 31L across 65 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Genoa against 0.98 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 9W 14D 8L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 1W 11D 19L across 31 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.92 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 17W 25D 23L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 15W 19D 31L in their last 65 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Cosenza away?
Genoa's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.32 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Genoa or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cosenza in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Genoa
0
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Cosenza have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2023, when Genoa 4-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Cosenza?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 32%, Cosenza 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Genoa and 39% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 42% of games; Cosenza in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Genoa's recent matches and 55% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Genoa's recent games and 39% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Cosenza tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genoa run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Cosenza 4-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.91 xG and Cosenza 0.52 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.02 / defence 0.71 against Cosenza attack 0.75 / defence 1.64, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 70% | Draw 21% | Cosenza 9%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 38%, Cosenza 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cosenza's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.17 PPG, Cosenza 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.