Ternana 1-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bari at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ternana and Bari meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ternana have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bari (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bari away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Bari arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ternana lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 45% versus Bari 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Bari 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.00 xG and Bari 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.947 / defence 1.125 | Bari attack 1.138 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 0.983. Data: 67 Ternana games / 29 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 29% | Draw 30% | Bari 42%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Bari 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 50% | Bari 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 29% | Draw 30% | Bari 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Ternana 1.00 / Bari 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.947 / def 1.125 | Bari attack 1.138 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.146 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Bari (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Bari kick off?
Ternana vs Bari kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Bari?
Ternana 1 - 0 Bari.
Where is Ternana vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Bari part of?
Ternana vs Bari is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 29% chance of winning, Bari a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ternana and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Bari 0W.
What form are Ternana and Bari in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Bari (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ternana's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bari's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bari's attack (1.14x) against Ternana's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.38
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.25
1.26
Bari xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
8%
12.27
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ternana and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ternana and 1.26 for Bari, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana's recent record stands at 9W 9D 11L from 29 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 5L across 29 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bari by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 6W 5D 3L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 8W 4D 2L across 14 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.55 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Bari in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Bari in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 9W 9D 11L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Bari have gone 13W 11D 5L in their last 29 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.64 PPG; Bari away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Ternana or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Bari in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 0-3 on 23 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ternana
3
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Bari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Ternana 0-3 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 43%, Bari 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ternana) and 36% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bari in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Ternana's recent matches and 43% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ternana's recent games and 36% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Bari tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Bari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.00 xG and Bari 1.26 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bari landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Bari attack 1.14 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 29% | Draw 30% | Bari 42%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Bari 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bari's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Ternana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.