Carrarese 0-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Carrarese face Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carrarese host Sudtirol at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Carrarese — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Carrarese's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Sudtirol have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sudtirol away from home: 1W 7D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Carrarese at 1.40 PPG versus Sudtirol's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Carrarese, 0 for Sudtirol and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Carrarese 1–1 Sudtirol — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Carrarese in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Sudtirol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 50% | Sudtirol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.19 xG and Sudtirol 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.066 / defence 0.839 | Sudtirol attack 0.880 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.016. Data: built from Carrarese's last 60 games and Sudtirol's last 60.
Result probabilities: Carrarese 46% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 23%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.20 | Draw 3.13 | Sudtirol 4.44. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Carrarese's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Carrarese 30% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 46% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Carrarese 1.19 / Sudtirol 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 1.066 / def 0.839 | Sudtirol attack 0.880 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Sudtirol xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carrarese vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Carrarese vs Sudtirol kick off?
Carrarese vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Sudtirol?
Carrarese 0 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Carrarese vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Sudtirol part of?
Carrarese vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 46% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Carrarese and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Carrarese vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Carrarese's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Carrarese's last 60 games and Sudtirol's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
46%
2.20
32%
3.13
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Carrarese xG
Total xG
1.94
0.75
Sudtirol xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carrarese vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.75 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carrarese come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 20D 22L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.23 PPG from 60 outings (18W 20D 22L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.23 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Carrarese's home form reads 15W 9D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 11D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.23 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
Carrarese (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carrarese
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Carrarese vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Carrarese and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 18W 20D 22L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 18W 20D 22L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Sudtirol away?
Carrarese's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.80 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Carrarese's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
3
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Carrarese vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Sudtirol?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Carrarese have won 1, Sudtirol have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Carrarese 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Sudtirol?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 33%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carrarese) and 43% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 33% of games; Sudtirol in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carrarese vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carrarese and Sudtirol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Carrarese's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Carrarese and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carrarese's recent games and 43% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Carrarese's recent matches and 73% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 23, as Carrarese and Sudtirol drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.19 xG and Sudtirol 0.75 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 46% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 23%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 50%, Sudtirol 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.23 PPG, Sudtirol 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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