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Poisson rates Venezia at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Carrarese encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.

Carrarese (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form favours the hosts. Venezia's 2.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Carrarese's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Venezia 0W, Carrarese 1W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with Carrarese winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 52% versus Carrarese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 49% | Carrarese 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.51 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.365 / defence 0.830 | Carrarese attack 1.109 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.036. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Venezia games / 59 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Venezia 71% | Draw 17% | Carrarese 12%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Carrarese 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 40% | Carrarese 80% BTTS from recent games.

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