Sampdoria 3-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Sampdoria have gone 1W 2D 4L this season (7 games, 0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona away from home this season: 0W 4D 2L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hellas Verona are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant games, Hellas Verona in 83%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 54% and Hellas Verona 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sampdoria 77% | Hellas Verona 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.44 xG and Hellas Verona 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.857 / defence 1.486 | Hellas Verona attack 0.908 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.407. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Sampdoria games / 13 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 29% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 48%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Hellas Verona 2.08. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 71% | Hellas Verona 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 29% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Sampdoria 1.44 / Hellas Verona 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.857 / def 1.486 | Hellas Verona attack 0.908 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Hellas Verona xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona?
Sampdoria 3 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona part of?
Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 29% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sampdoria and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Hellas Verona in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.86x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.91x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
29%
3.42
22%
4.49
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
3.34
1.90
Hellas Verona xG
3.42
29%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
15%
6.68
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
4%
22.82
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.90 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 3W 3D 7L from 13 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 4L across 13 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hellas Verona by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 0W 4D 2L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hellas Verona's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 2.08 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Hellas Verona away?
Sampdoria's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.83 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Hellas Verona?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 2, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Sampdoria 3-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Hellas Verona?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Sampdoria, 83% for Hellas Verona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sampdoria and 50% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Sampdoria's games and 83% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sampdoria's matches and 50% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Sampdoria and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Hellas Verona 3-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.44 xG and Hellas Verona 1.90 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hellas Verona landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.86 / defence 1.49 against Hellas Verona attack 0.91 / defence 1.32, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 29% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 48%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 77%, Hellas Verona 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hellas Verona arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.