Fiorentina 3-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sampdoria make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 4W 0D 2L from 6 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Sampdoria's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sampdoria have posted 2W 1D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.00 for Sampdoria. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 57% versus Sampdoria 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fiorentina 71% | Sampdoria 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.05 xG and Sampdoria 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.292 / defence 1.169 | Sampdoria attack 0.819 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.378. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Fiorentina games / 14 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 54% | Draw 21% | Sampdoria 24%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Sampdoria 4.17. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 67% | Sampdoria 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 54% | Draw 21% | Sampdoria 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Fiorentina 2.05 / Sampdoria 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.292 / def 1.169 | Sampdoria attack 0.819 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sampdoria xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Sampdoria kick off?
Fiorentina vs Sampdoria kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Sampdoria?
Fiorentina 3 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Fiorentina vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Sampdoria part of?
Fiorentina vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 54% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Fiorentina and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fiorentina and Sampdoria in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.29x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.82x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
54%
1.84
21%
4.69
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.37
1.32
Sampdoria xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
13%
7.75
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
3%
31.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.32 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 7W 0D 7L from 14 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 7L across 14 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.43 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 7W 0D 7L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Sampdoria away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.00 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fiorentina have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 5-0 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
0
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Sampdoria have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Fiorentina 5-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Sampdoria?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 67%, Sampdoria 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fiorentina and 67% for Sampdoria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sampdoria in 50%; Sampdoria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 33% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fiorentina's matches and 67% of Sampdoria's.
Do Fiorentina and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Sampdoria 3-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.05 xG and Sampdoria 1.32 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.29 / defence 1.17 against Sampdoria attack 0.82 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 54% | Draw 21% | Sampdoria 24%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 71%, Sampdoria 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.