Spezia 0-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Bologna at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 games at Stadio Alberto Picco this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Spezia) versus 1.10 (Bologna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spezia register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Bologna in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bologna trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spezia 69% and Bologna 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Spezia 77% | Bologna 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.60 xG and Bologna 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.853 / defence 1.126 | Bologna attack 0.733 / defence 1.492. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.378. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.492 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Spezia games / 13 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 48% | Draw 25% | Bologna 27%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 3.70. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 67% | Bologna 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 48% | Draw 25% | Bologna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Spezia 1.60 / Bologna 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.853 / def 1.126 | Bologna attack 0.733 / def 1.492 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Spezia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bologna xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Bologna kick off?
Spezia vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Bologna?
Spezia 0 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Spezia vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Bologna part of?
Spezia vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 48% chance of winning, Bologna a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Spezia and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Bologna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Bologna in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.03
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.74
1.14
Bologna xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
5%
18.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Spezia and 1.14 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 3W 2D 8L from 13 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 5L across 13 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bologna's season.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.46 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spezia have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Bologna in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Bologna have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Bologna away?
Spezia's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.17 PPG; Bologna away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Spezia or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Bologna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Bologna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spezia's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
1
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Bologna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when Bologna 2-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spezia at 67%, Bologna at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spezia) and 67% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Spezia's games and 67% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Spezia's matches and 67% of Bologna's.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Spezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Spezia 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.60 xG and Bologna 1.14 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spezia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.85 / defence 1.13 against Bologna attack 0.73 / defence 1.49, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 48% | Draw 25% | Bologna 27%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 77%, Bologna 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Bologna's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.