Hellas Verona 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Empoli at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this season: 4W 0D 2L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 1L across 5 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hellas Verona 1.60 PPG, Empoli 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Empoli in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 83% and Empoli 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hellas Verona 75% | Empoli 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.92 xG and Empoli 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.343 / defence 1.147 | Empoli attack 1.035 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.417. Hellas Verona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Hellas Verona games / 12 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 44% | Draw 22% | Empoli 34%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Empoli 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 83% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 44% | Draw 22% | Empoli 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Hellas Verona 1.92 / Empoli 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.343 / def 1.147 | Empoli attack 1.035 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Empoli xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Empoli kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Hellas Verona 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Empoli part of?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 44% chance of winning, Empoli a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Hellas Verona and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Empoli (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.34) and Empoli's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
44%
2.28
22%
4.59
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.60
1.68
Empoli xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
5%
19.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.68 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 4D 4L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (5W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 1.33 PPG, Empoli on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hellas Verona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 2.40 points per game from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.33 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.50 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Empoli have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Empoli away?
Hellas Verona's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 2.40 PPG; Empoli away: 2.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Empoli won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 4, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 80%, Empoli 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Hellas Verona and 40% for Empoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hellas Verona's games and 40% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hellas Verona's matches and 40% of Empoli's.
Do Hellas Verona and Empoli tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Empoli in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hellas Verona edge out Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.92 xG and Empoli 1.68 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.34 / defence 1.15 against Empoli attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 44% | Draw 22% | Empoli 34%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 75%, Empoli 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.33 PPG, Empoli 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.