AS Roma 1-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 4W 1D 1L from 6 Serie A appearances (2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Torino (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 1W 1D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for AS Roma, 1.40 for Torino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 54% versus Torino 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 62% | Torino 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.13 xG and Torino 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.915 / defence 0.827 | Torino attack 0.540 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.396. Data: 13 AS Roma games / 13 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 48% | Draw 32% | Torino 20%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Torino 5.00. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Torino's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 50% | Torino 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 48% | Draw 32% | Torino 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 31% | xG AS Roma 1.13 / Torino 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.915 / def 0.827 | Torino attack 0.540 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Torino xG
31%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Torino kick off?
AS Roma vs Torino kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Torino?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Torino.
Where is AS Roma vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Torino part of?
AS Roma vs Torino is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 48% chance of winning, Torino a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both AS Roma and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Torino in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Torino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AS Roma's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.54x) against AS Roma's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.0%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
48%
2.08
32%
3.15
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
AS Roma xG
Total xG
1.76
0.62
Torino xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.18
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
7%
15.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.62 for Torino, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 7W 1D 5L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 5W 2D 6L from 13 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for AS Roma against 1.31 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Torino have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Torino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.31 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Torino in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 7W 1D 5L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while Torino have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Torino away?
AS Roma's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.17 PPG; Torino away: 0.67 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Torino in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-3 on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Torino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Torino?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Torino see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 50%, Torino 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for AS Roma and 17% for Torino.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Torino in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AS Roma's recent matches and 33% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AS Roma's recent games and 17% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Torino tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Torino in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Torino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Torino 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.13 xG and Torino 0.62 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.83 against Torino attack 0.54 / defence 1.00, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 48% | Draw 32% | Torino 20%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 62%, Torino 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Torino's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.69 PPG, Torino 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.