Hellas Verona 0-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi plays host to Hellas Verona versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 2L across 7 games at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this term (2.14 PPG). They are averaging 2.57 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hellas Verona are significantly better at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari away from home this season: 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Hellas Verona's favour (1.60 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 86% and Cagliari 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hellas Verona 79% | Cagliari 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 2.46 xG and Cagliari 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.331 / defence 1.103 | Cagliari attack 0.700 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.366. Hellas Verona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Hellas Verona games / 14 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 68% | Draw 17% | Cagliari 14%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Cagliari 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Hellas Verona (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 86% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 68% | Draw 17% | Cagliari 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Hellas Verona 2.46 / Cagliari 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.331 / def 1.103 | Cagliari attack 0.700 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cagliari xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Cagliari kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Hellas Verona 0 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari part of?
Hellas Verona vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 68% chance of winning, Cagliari a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hellas Verona and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Cagliari in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Cagliari (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 1.33x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.70x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
68%
1.47
17%
5.74
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.51
1.05
Cagliari xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
9%
11.70
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
1%
81.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.05 for Cagliari, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 5W 4D 5L from 14 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 8L across 14 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hellas Verona by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Hellas Verona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cagliari's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.14 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; Cagliari in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 1W 5D 8L in their last 14 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Cagliari away?
Hellas Verona's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 2.50 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cagliari won 4-0 on 31 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
3
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Cagliari have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Cagliari 4-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Hellas Verona, 50% for Cagliari — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Hellas Verona and 67% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Hellas Verona's games and 50% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hellas Verona's matches and 67% of Cagliari's.
Do Hellas Verona and Cagliari tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hellas Verona's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 15, as Hellas Verona and Cagliari drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 2.46 xG and Cagliari 1.05 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.33 / defence 1.10 against Cagliari attack 0.70 / defence 1.45, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 68% | Draw 17% | Cagliari 14%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 79%, Cagliari 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Cagliari's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hellas Verona arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.