Salernitana 0-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sampdoria make the trip to Stadio Arechi to face Salernitana in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Salernitana (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Arechi, Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 4L this season (6 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Sampdoria's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria away from home this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 42% versus Sampdoria 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Salernitana 67% | Sampdoria 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.35 xG and Sampdoria 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.746 / defence 1.273 | Sampdoria attack 0.761 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.399. Salernitana's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Salernitana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Salernitana games / 12 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 37% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 37%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Sampdoria 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Salernitana 33% | Sampdoria 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 37% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Salernitana 1.35 / Sampdoria 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.746 / def 1.273 | Sampdoria attack 0.761 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Sampdoria xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Sampdoria kick off?
Salernitana vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Sampdoria?
Salernitana 0 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Salernitana vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Sampdoria part of?
Salernitana vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 37% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Salernitana and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Sampdoria in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Salernitana's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.76x) against Salernitana's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.88
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.71
1.36
Sampdoria xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.36 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Salernitana's recent record stands at 2W 1D 9L from 12 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 7L across 12 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.58 PPG for Salernitana against 0.75 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Salernitana are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.25 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Sampdoria away?
Salernitana's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.80 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sampdoria have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Salernitana won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Salernitana
1
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Sampdoria?
From 7 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 3, Sampdoria have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 15 June 2025, when Sampdoria 2-0 Salernitana.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salernitana see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 40%, Sampdoria 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Salernitana and 80% for Sampdoria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 40%; Salernitana have failed to score in 40% of games; Sampdoria in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Salernitana's recent matches and 40% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Salernitana's matches and 80% of Sampdoria's.
Do Salernitana and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Salernitana 0-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.35 xG and Sampdoria 1.36 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Salernitana fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.75 / defence 1.27 against Sampdoria attack 0.76 / defence 1.39, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 37% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 37%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 67%, Sampdoria 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sampdoria's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 0.58 PPG, Sampdoria 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.