Udinese 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Genoa travel to Dacia Arena to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dacia Arena, Udinese have gone 2W 3D 2L this season (7 games, 1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Udinese are significantly better at Dacia Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa away from home this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Udinese 0.70 PPG, Genoa 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Genoa in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Udinese 54% and Genoa 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 46% | Genoa 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.62 xG and Genoa 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.907 / defence 1.245 | Genoa attack 0.859 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.393. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Udinese games / 13 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 24% | Genoa 35%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Genoa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 57% | Genoa 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 24% | Genoa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Udinese 1.62 / Genoa 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.907 / def 1.245 | Genoa attack 0.859 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Udinese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Genoa xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Genoa kick off?
Udinese vs Genoa kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Genoa?
Udinese 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Udinese vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Genoa part of?
Udinese vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 41% chance of winning, Genoa a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Udinese and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Udinese and Genoa in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Udinese's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
41%
2.44
24%
4.21
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.11
1.49
Genoa xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Udinese and 1.49 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 5D 5L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 0.69 PPG from 13 outings (1W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.08 PPG, Genoa on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.31 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Genoa in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 6D 6L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Genoa away?
Udinese's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.29 PPG; Genoa away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Genoa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 57%, Genoa 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Udinese and 71% for Genoa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 29% of games; Genoa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Udinese's games and 71% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Udinese's matches and 71% of Genoa's.
Do Udinese and Genoa tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Genoa in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Udinese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Genoa finished level at 0-0 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.62 xG and Genoa 1.49 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Udinese fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Genoa attack 0.86 / defence 1.41, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 41% | Draw 24% | Genoa 35%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 46%, Genoa 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.08 PPG, Genoa 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.