Fiorentina 0-3 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Lazio at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Fiorentina) versus 1.50 (Lazio). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fiorentina register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lazio in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0, Lazio 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Lazio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Lazio in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 59% and Lazio 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fiorentina 73% | Lazio 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.74 xG and Lazio 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.723 / defence 0.998 | Lazio attack 0.895 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.497. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.723 — their λ of 2.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lazio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Fiorentina games / 23 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 66% | Draw 18% | Lazio 16%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Lazio 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.74 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 60% | Lazio 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 66% | Draw 18% | Lazio 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 70% | xG Fiorentina 2.74 / Lazio 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.723 / def 0.998 | Lazio attack 0.895 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.74
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Lazio xG
70%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Lazio kick off?
Fiorentina vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Fiorentina 0 - 3 Lazio.
Where is Fiorentina vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Lazio part of?
Fiorentina vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 66% chance of winning, Lazio a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Fiorentina and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Lazio?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 0 | Lazio 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Lazio in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Lazio (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.72x league average) is weighed against Lazio's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.74. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
66%
1.51
18%
5.45
16%
6.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.74
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
4.08
1.34
Lazio xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.45
18%
Draw
6.40
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
6%
15.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
1%
99.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.34 for Lazio, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 11W 3D 8L from 22 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 7L across 22 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.64 PPG, Lazio on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 7W 1D 2L from 10 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lazio's away record stands at 3W 2D 5L across 10 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.95 scored and 1.73 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Lazio in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 11W 3D 8L in their last 22 games (1.64 PPG), while Lazio have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Lazio away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.20 PPG; Lazio away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Lazio runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Oct 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fiorentina
2
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 4, Lazio have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Fiorentina 1-0 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fiorentina at 60%, Lazio at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fiorentina and 90% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fiorentina's games and 70% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fiorentina's matches and 90% of Lazio's.
Do Fiorentina and Lazio tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lazio in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lazio run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Fiorentina 0-3 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.74 xG and Lazio 1.34 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 2.7 short of their projected output. Lazio outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.72 / defence 1.00 against Lazio attack 0.90 / defence 1.40, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 66% | Draw 18% | Lazio 16%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Lazio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 73%, Lazio 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Lazio's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.64 PPG, Lazio 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.