Fiorentina 3-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fiorentina's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 0D 4L from 8 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season.
Cagliari have collected 0.75 PPG across 8 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 2.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Serie A this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Fiorentina. A 0.75 PPG lead over Cagliari (1.50 vs 0.75) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Cagliari in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 75% and Cagliari 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fiorentina 75% | Cagliari 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.64 xG and Cagliari 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.929 / defence 1.227 | Cagliari attack 0.781 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.533. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Fiorentina games / 8 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 42% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 34%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Cagliari 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 100% | Cagliari 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 42% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Fiorentina 1.64 / Cagliari 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.929 / def 1.227 | Cagliari attack 0.781 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Cagliari xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Cagliari kick off?
Fiorentina vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Fiorentina 3 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Fiorentina vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Cagliari part of?
Fiorentina vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 42% chance of winning, Cagliari a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fiorentina and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fiorentina and Cagliari in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-0D-4L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.12 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.93) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.78x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
42%
2.39
24%
4.22
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.11
1.47
Cagliari xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.47 for Cagliari, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 4W 0D 4L from 8 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 4L across 8 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Cagliari's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.38 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Cagliari in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 4W 0D 4L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Cagliari away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.00 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Cagliari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Fiorentina, 67% for Cagliari — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fiorentina and 67% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Fiorentina's games and 67% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fiorentina's matches and 67% of Cagliari's.
Do Fiorentina and Cagliari tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Cagliari 3-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.64 xG and Cagliari 1.47 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cagliari landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.93 / defence 1.23 against Cagliari attack 0.78 / defence 1.32, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 42% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 34%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 75%, Cagliari 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Cagliari's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.