Cagliari 1-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Cagliari welcome AS Roma to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 outings — a 0.67 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 2.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.22 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma — All Games: 5W 1D 3L from 9 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.78 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.78 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.78 PPG return is 1.11 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 0.67 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
AS Roma trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 67% versus AS Roma 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 67% | AS Roma 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.43 xG and AS Roma 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.925 / defence 1.285 | AS Roma attack 0.937 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.484. Data: 9 Cagliari games / 9 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 46%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | AS Roma 2.17. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 80% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Cagliari 1.43 / AS Roma 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.925 / def 1.285 | AS Roma attack 0.937 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.79
AS Roma xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs AS Roma kick off?
Cagliari vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Cagliari 1 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Cagliari vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs AS Roma part of?
Cagliari vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 31% chance of winning, AS Roma a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cagliari and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 2.22 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
31%
3.23
23%
4.35
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.22
1.79
AS Roma xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
5%
19.26
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Cagliari and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.79 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cagliari come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 3D 5L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cagliari's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.78 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Roma in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or AS Roma away?
Cagliari's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.00 PPG; AS Roma away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Cagliari or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, AS Roma in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
1
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, AS Roma have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 75%, AS Roma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Cagliari and 75% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Cagliari's games and 50% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cagliari's matches and 75% of AS Roma's.
Do Cagliari and AS Roma tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Cagliari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.43 xG and AS Roma 1.79 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.93 / defence 1.28 against AS Roma attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 31% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 46%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 67%, AS Roma 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.