Bologna 2-4 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 40%, yet in-form AC Milan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bologna vs AC Milan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Bologna welcome AC Milan to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.88 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 3W 1D 0L this season (4 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AC Milan stand at 7W 1D 0L from 8 Serie A matches — 2.75 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AC Milan have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. AC Milan's 2.75 PPG return is 1.25 points per game ahead of Bologna's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
AC Milan in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bologna 62% and AC Milan 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 62% | AC Milan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.53 xG and AC Milan 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.080 / defence 1.007 | AC Milan attack 0.945 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.505. Data: 8 Bologna games / 8 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 40% | Draw 24% | AC Milan 36%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | AC Milan 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AC Milan (2.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | AC Milan 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 40% | Draw 24% | AC Milan 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Bologna 1.53 / AC Milan 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.080 / def 1.007 | AC Milan attack 0.945 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: Bologna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.43
AC Milan xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs AC Milan kick off?
Bologna vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Bologna 2 - 4 AC Milan.
Where is Bologna vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs AC Milan part of?
Bologna vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 40% chance of winning, AC Milan a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bologna and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AC Milan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and AC Milan in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.88 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. AC Milan (all comps): 7W-1D-0L in 8 | 2.75 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 0.88 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.08x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
40%
2.50
24%
4.09
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.96
1.43
AC Milan xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Bologna and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Bologna and 1.43 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Milan, meanwhile, have gone 7W 1D 0L across 8 games — 2.75 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AC Milan's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 2.25 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; AC Milan in 62%.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; AC Milan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 7W 1D 0L in their last 8 (2.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AC Milan away?
Bologna's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.50 PPG; AC Milan away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Bologna or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AC Milan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and AC Milan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AC Milan have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bologna
3
Draws
6
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AC Milan?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 1, AC Milan have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Bologna 0-3 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, AC Milan 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bologna and 50% for AC Milan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play AC Milan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bologna's games and 75% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bologna's matches and 50% of AC Milan's.
Do Bologna and AC Milan tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Bologna 2-4 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.53 xG and AC Milan 1.43 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. AC Milan outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against AC Milan attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 40% | Draw 24% | AC Milan 36%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AC Milan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 62%, AC Milan 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Milan's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 2.75 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Milan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.