Lazio 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on Lazio. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 October 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lazio stand at 4W 2D 3L from 9 Serie A matches — 1.56 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.11 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.56 — Lazio are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 5W 0D 4L from 9 outings — 1.67 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 3W 0D 2L from 5 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lazio at 1.56 PPG versus Fiorentina's 1.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lazio register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Fiorentina in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Lazio trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Fiorentina trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lazio 78% and Fiorentina 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lazio 78% | Fiorentina 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 2.01 xG and Fiorentina 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.443 / defence 1.160 | Fiorentina attack 0.752 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.484. Lazio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.443 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Lazio games / 9 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 54% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 24%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Fiorentina 4.17. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 100% | Fiorentina 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 54% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Lazio 2.01 / Fiorentina 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.443 / def 1.160 | Fiorentina attack 0.752 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Lazio (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Fiorentina xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Fiorentina kick off?
Lazio vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Lazio 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Lazio vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Fiorentina part of?
Lazio vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 54% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lazio and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lazio and Fiorentina in?
Lazio (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 2.11 / GA 1.89 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-0D-4L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.44x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.64
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Lazio xG
Total xG
3.31
1.29
Fiorentina xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
3%
30.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Lazio and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Lazio and 1.29 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lazio's recent record stands at 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 5W 0D 4L across 9 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.56 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Lazio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 3W 0D 1L across 4 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.67 PPG overall record — Fiorentina travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Lazio are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.44 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Fiorentina in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 5W 0D 4L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Fiorentina away?
Lazio's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 2.50 PPG; Fiorentina away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Oct 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lazio
2
Draws
4
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 4, Fiorentina have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Fiorentina 1-0 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lazio at 100%, Fiorentina at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Lazio and 50% for Fiorentina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lazio's games and 50% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Lazio's matches and 50% of Fiorentina's.
Do Lazio and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 2.01 xG and Fiorentina 1.29 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lazio fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fiorentina landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.44 / defence 1.16 against Fiorentina attack 0.75 / defence 1.07, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 54% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 24%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 78%, Fiorentina 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.56 PPG, Fiorentina 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.