Cagliari 3-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sampdoria make the trip to Unipol Domus to face Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 0W 3D 4L across 7 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.43 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L this season (4 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sampdoria's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games (0.86 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.43 PPG for Cagliari against 0.86 for Sampdoria. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 71% versus Sampdoria 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 57% | Sampdoria 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.16 xG and Sampdoria 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.810 / defence 1.416 | Sampdoria attack 0.900 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.518. Data: 7 Cagliari games / 7 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 23% | Draw 22% | Sampdoria 55%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Sampdoria 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Sampdoria (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 75% | Sampdoria 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 23% | Draw 22% | Sampdoria 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Cagliari 1.16 / Sampdoria 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.810 / def 1.416 | Sampdoria attack 0.900 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Sampdoria xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Sampdoria kick off?
Cagliari vs Sampdoria kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Sampdoria?
Cagliari 3 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Cagliari vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Sampdoria part of?
Cagliari vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 23% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cagliari and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Sampdoria in?
Cagliari (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.29 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.90x) against Cagliari's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
23%
4.41
22%
4.54
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.10
1.93
Sampdoria xG
4.41
23%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
14%
6.91
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
3%
30.50
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.93 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Sampdoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.43 PPG on a 0W 3D 4L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sampdoria's form line: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sampdoria are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.86 PPG overall record — Sampdoria travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.43 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.33 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cagliari
0
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Sampdoria?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Sampdoria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2022, when Sampdoria 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Sampdoria?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 67%, Sampdoria 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cagliari) and 67% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 67%; Cagliari have failed to score in 33% of games; Sampdoria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Cagliari's recent matches and 33% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cagliari's recent games and 67% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Sampdoria 3-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.16 xG and Sampdoria 1.93 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sampdoria landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.81 / defence 1.42 against Sampdoria attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 23% | Draw 22% | Sampdoria 55%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 57%, Sampdoria 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sampdoria arrived the stronger side — 0.86 PPG against 0.43. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.