Sassuolo 3-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Venezia travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 1W 1D 2L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 2W 2D 4L from 8 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sassuolo 1.00 PPG, Venezia 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Venezia trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 62% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 62% | Venezia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.01 xG and Venezia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.621 / defence 0.956 | Venezia attack 0.578 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.503. Sassuolo's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Sassuolo games / 8 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 39% | Draw 32% | Venezia 29%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Venezia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 25% | Venezia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 39% | Draw 32% | Venezia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Sassuolo 1.01 / Venezia 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.621 / def 0.956 | Venezia attack 0.578 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Venezia xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Venezia kick off?
Sassuolo vs Venezia kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Venezia?
Sassuolo 3 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Sassuolo vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Venezia part of?
Sassuolo vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 39% chance of winning, Venezia a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sassuolo and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Venezia in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Venezia (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (0.62) and Venezia's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.10
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
1.84
0.83
Venezia xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.83 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 2D 4L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia's form line: 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.00 PPG, Venezia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Venezia in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Venezia have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Venezia away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.00 PPG; Venezia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and Venezia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
0
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Venezia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Venezia 1-4 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Venezia?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 25%, Venezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Sassuolo) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sassuolo have failed to score in 50% of games; Venezia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 50% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sassuolo's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Venezia tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Venezia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Venezia 3-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.01 xG and Venezia 0.83 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sassuolo beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.62 / defence 0.96 against Venezia attack 0.58 / defence 1.23, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 39% | Draw 32% | Venezia 29%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 62%, Venezia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.00 PPG, Venezia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.