Sampdoria 2-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Spezia at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 1W 3D 4L from 8 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.75 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 0W 2D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have recorded 2W 1D 5L from 8 outings — 0.88 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 3.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.75 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 0.88 (Spezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Spezia trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 50% and Spezia 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sampdoria 75% | Spezia 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 2.02 xG and Spezia 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.949 / defence 1.432 | Spezia attack 0.765 / defence 1.621. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.469. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.621 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Sampdoria games / 8 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 47% | Draw 21% | Spezia 31%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.13 | Draw 4.76 | Spezia 3.23. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 50% | Spezia 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 47% | Draw 21% | Spezia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Sampdoria 2.02 / Spezia 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.949 / def 1.432 | Spezia attack 0.765 / def 1.621 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Spezia xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Spezia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Spezia kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Sampdoria 2 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Spezia part of?
Sampdoria vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 47% chance of winning, Spezia a 31% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sampdoria and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Spezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Spezia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Spezia (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.95x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
47%
2.11
21%
4.66
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
3.62
1.61
Spezia xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
4%
24.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.61 for Spezia, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 3D 4L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 0.75 PPG, Spezia on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.25 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spezia in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Spezia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Spezia have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Spezia away?
Spezia's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.50 PPG; Spezia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Spezia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
3
Draws
4
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Spezia?
From 10 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Spezia have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 50%, Spezia 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sampdoria and 100% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sampdoria's games and 75% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sampdoria's matches and 100% of Spezia's.
Do Sampdoria and Spezia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Spezia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Spezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Spezia 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 2.02 xG and Spezia 1.61 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.95 / defence 1.43 against Spezia attack 0.77 / defence 1.62, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 47% | Draw 21% | Spezia 31%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 75%, Spezia 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.75 PPG, Spezia 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.