AS Roma 0-0 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Napoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Roma host Napoli at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 5W 0D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.88 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 0L across 4 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.88 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Napoli — All Games: 8W 0D 0L from 8 Serie A fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.38 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.38 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli away from home this season: 4W 0D 0L from 4 away games — 3.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Napoli — 1.12 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.88). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Napoli in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 50% versus Napoli 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 62% | Napoli 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.22 xG and Napoli 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.079 / defence 0.805 | Napoli attack 1.246 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.506. Napoli have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 AS Roma games / 8 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 31% | Draw 25% | Napoli 44%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Napoli 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 50% | Napoli 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 31% | Draw 25% | Napoli 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG AS Roma 1.22 / Napoli 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.079 / def 0.805 | Napoli attack 1.246 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: Napoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Napoli xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Napoli kick off?
AS Roma vs Napoli kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Napoli?
AS Roma 0 - 0 Napoli.
Where is AS Roma vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Napoli part of?
AS Roma vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 31% chance of winning, Napoli a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AS Roma and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Napoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Napoli in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-0D-3L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Napoli (all comps): 8W-0D-0L in 8 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.38 / GA 0.38 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
31%
3.26
25%
3.94
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.73
1.51
Napoli xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.77
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.51 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 0D 3L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 3.00 PPG from 8 outings (8W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of AS Roma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 4W 0D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 3.00 points per game from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L).
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 2.38 scored and 0.38 conceded. AS Roma's scoring rate against Napoli's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Napoli in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Napoli in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Napoli have gone 8W 0D 0L in their last 8 (3.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Napoli away?
AS Roma's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 3.00 PPG; Napoli away: 3.00 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Napoli in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AS Roma
5
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 1, Napoli have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Napoli 2-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 50%, Napoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for AS Roma and 100% for Napoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Napoli in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AS Roma's recent matches and 50% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AS Roma's matches and 100% of Napoli's.
Do AS Roma and Napoli tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Napoli in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AS Roma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 9, as AS Roma and Napoli drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.22 xG and Napoli 1.51 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AS Roma fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Napoli landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against Napoli attack 1.25 / defence 0.82, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 31% | Draw 25% | Napoli 44%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 62%, Napoli 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Napoli's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.