Cremonese 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Genoa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese in Serie A (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have gone 0W 3D 7L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Cremonese are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Genoa — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Genoa have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Genoa's 0.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cremonese's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Cremonese have won 1, Genoa 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2025, ended Cremonese 2–0 Genoa — a Cremonese win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Genoa trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 60% versus Genoa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Genoa 48%). Note also that Genoa surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Cremonese recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.18 xG and Genoa 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.758 / defence 1.159 | Genoa attack 1.054 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.230. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Genoa's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cremonese's projected output up. Data: built from Cremonese's last 24 games and Genoa's last 62.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 26% | Genoa 45%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.37 | Draw 3.90 | Genoa 2.24. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 50% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 26% | Genoa 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Cremonese 1.18 / Genoa 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.758 / def 1.159 | Genoa attack 1.054 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Genoa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Genoa xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Genoa kick off?
Cremonese vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Genoa?
Cremonese 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Cremonese vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Genoa part of?
Cremonese vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 30% chance of winning, Genoa a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cremonese and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cremonese vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.76) and Genoa's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 24 games and Genoa's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
30%
3.37
26%
3.90
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.68
1.50
Genoa xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.50 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 21W 22D 19L from 62 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 15W 21D 26L across 62 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.37 PPG, Genoa on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 9W 14D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 7W 10D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.06 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Genoa
Blended
Cremonese (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Cremonese vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Genoa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 21W 22D 19L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Genoa have gone 15W 21D 26L in their last 62 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Genoa away?
Cremonese's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.37 PPG; Genoa away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2025. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Genoa?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 1, Genoa have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Cremonese 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Genoa?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 67%, Genoa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 50% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Genoa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cremonese's games and 60% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cremonese and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 50% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Cremonese's recent matches and 63% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cremonese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Genoa finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.18 xG and Genoa 1.50 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against Genoa attack 1.05 / defence 1.25, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 30% | Draw 26% | Genoa 45%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Genoa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.37 PPG, Genoa 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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