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Poisson model rates Como at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to take on Como. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Como have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Como have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
Fiorentina — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Como carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Como, 1 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Como winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Como trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 51% versus Fiorentina 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 43% | Fiorentina 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.82 xG and Fiorentina 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.189 / defence 0.718 | Fiorentina attack 0.889 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.205. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Como's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Como's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Como games / 62 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 62% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 15%. Fair-value odds: Como 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Fiorentina 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Como (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Como 40% | Fiorentina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): Como 2W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Como 4 – 3 Fiorentina • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Como 67% / Draw 0% / Fiorentina 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 62% / draw 23% / away 15% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.59 (48% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 45% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Como (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D • Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D • Como home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | CS 6 • Fiorentina away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | CS 1 • Form edge: Como lead by 0.50 PPG (1.70 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Como): Poisson xG of 1.82 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.70 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Fiorentina): Poisson xG of 0.77 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.90 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.59 (48% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 45% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Como — Como at 62% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 62% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Como 1.82 / Fiorentina 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.189 / def 0.718 | Fiorentina attack 0.889 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Como (62%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Fiorentina xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Fiorentina kick off?
Como vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Fiorentina?
Como 1 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Como vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Fiorentina part of?
Como vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Como a 62% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Como and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Fiorentina?
• Record (3 meetings): Como 2W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Como 4 – 3 Fiorentina • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Como 67% / Draw 0% / Fiorentina 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 62% / draw 23% / away 15% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.59 (48% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 45% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Como and Fiorentina in?
• Como (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D • Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D • Como home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | CS 6 • Fiorentina away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | CS 1 • Form edge: Como lead by 0.50 PPG (1.70 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Como): Poisson xG of 1.82 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.70 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Fiorentina): Poisson xG of 0.77 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.90 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.59 (48% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 45% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Como — Como at 62% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Como vs Fiorentina?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture