Genoa 2-3 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as Genoa welcome Napoli to Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Napoli have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Napoli's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Genoa's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Napoli have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Genoa.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Napoli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Napoli have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Napoli in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 54% versus Napoli 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 48% | Napoli 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.11 xG and Napoli 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.018 / defence 1.073 | Napoli attack 0.971 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.156. Data: 61 Genoa games / 61 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 29% | Napoli 38%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Napoli 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Napoli 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 29% | Napoli 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Genoa 1.11 / Napoli 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.018 / def 1.073 | Napoli attack 0.971 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Napoli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Napoli xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Napoli kick off?
Genoa vs Napoli kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Napoli?
Genoa 2 - 3 Napoli.
Where is Genoa vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Napoli part of?
Genoa vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 33% chance of winning, Napoli a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Genoa and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Napoli?
Record (7 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 3 | Napoli 4W.
What form are Genoa and Napoli in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Napoli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genoa's attack rating (1.02) and Napoli's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.45
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.32
1.20
Napoli xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Genoa and 1.20 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 15W 21D 25L from 61 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli, meanwhile, have gone 38W 14D 9L across 61 games — 2.10 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 8W 11D 12L from 31 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Napoli's away record stands at 16W 8D 7L across 31 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.51 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Napoli in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 15W 21D 25L in their last 61 games (1.08 PPG), while Napoli have gone 38W 14D 9L in their last 61 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.13 PPG; Napoli away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Genoa or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Napoli in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Napoli runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Napoli?
From 9 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Napoli have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 48%, Napoli 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Genoa) and 39% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 48%; Genoa have failed to score in 36% of games; Napoli in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Genoa's recent matches and 36% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Genoa's recent games and 39% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Napoli tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Napoli in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Genoa 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Genoa 2-3 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.11 xG and Napoli 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Napoli outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Napoli attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 33% | Draw 29% | Napoli 38%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 48%, Napoli 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.