Genoa 3-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Genoa, 1.00 for Torino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Genoa 1W, Torino 3W, 3D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Torino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 54% versus Torino 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 48% | Torino 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.72 xG and Torino 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.080 / defence 1.152 | Torino attack 0.909 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.227. Torino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Genoa games / 63 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 47% | Draw 24% | Torino 28%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Torino 3.57. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 60% | Torino 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 47% | Draw 24% | Torino 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Genoa 1.72 / Torino 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.080 / def 1.152 | Torino attack 0.909 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Genoa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Torino xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Torino kick off?
Genoa vs Torino kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Torino?
Genoa 3 - 0 Torino.
Where is Genoa vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Torino part of?
Genoa vs Torino is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 47% chance of winning, Torino a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Genoa and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Torino?
Record (7 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 3 | Torino 3W.
What form are Genoa and Torino in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Torino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genoa's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.91x) against Genoa's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.10
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.01
1.28
Torino xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Genoa and 1.28 for Torino, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa's recent record stands at 15W 22D 26L from 63 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 17W 20D 26L across 63 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Genoa against 1.13 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 8W 10D 13L from 31 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 7W 11D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.02 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Torino in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 15W 22D 26L in their last 63 games (1.06 PPG), while Torino have gone 17W 20D 26L in their last 63 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Torino away?
Genoa's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.10 PPG; Torino away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Genoa or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Torino in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 3-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Genoa
3
Draws
3
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Torino?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Torino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 48%, Torino 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Genoa) and 45% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 36% of games; Torino in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Genoa's recent matches and 45% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Genoa's recent games and 45% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Torino tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Torino in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genoa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Torino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Torino 3-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.72 xG and Torino 1.28 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Torino landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.08 / defence 1.15 against Torino attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 47% | Draw 24% | Torino 28%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 48%, Torino 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Torino's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.06 PPG, Torino 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.