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Poisson rates AS Roma at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Cremonese encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.

Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cremonese away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. AS Roma's 30% rate and Cremonese's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Cremonese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with AS Roma winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

AS Roma in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Cremonese in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 40% versus Cremonese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 33% | Cremonese 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.62 xG and Cremonese 0.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.125 / defence 0.632 | Cremonese attack 0.626 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.219. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.632 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 AS Roma games / 25 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AS Roma 65% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 11%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | Cremonese 9.09. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Cremonese's lower xG of 0.48 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.

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