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Poisson rates Bologna at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs Bologna encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Torino welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico di Torino. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Torino — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico di Torino: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bologna have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Torino carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Torino register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bologna in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Torino, 4 for Bologna and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Torino in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Bologna in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 45% versus Bologna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 39% | Bologna 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.24 xG and Bologna 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.874 / defence 1.245 | Bologna attack 1.236 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.219. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Torino games / 62 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Torino 25% | Draw 23% | Bologna 52%. Fair-value odds: Torino 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Bologna 1.92. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

Bologna lead the H2H ledger, but Torino carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Torino (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torino 60% | Bologna 80% BTTS from recent games.

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