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Poisson rates Napoli at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs AS Roma encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Napoli welcome AS Roma to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Napoli have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Napoli are significantly better at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Napoli) versus 1.90 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

Napoli hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for AS Roma, with 4 draws in between.

The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Napoli winning.

The historical record gives Napoli a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Napoli in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

AS Roma in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 44% versus AS Roma 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Napoli 47% | AS Roma 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.08 xG and AS Roma 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.145 / defence 0.803 | AS Roma attack 0.896 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.219. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Napoli games / 62 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Napoli 39% | Draw 32% | AS Roma 29%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | AS Roma 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 70% | AS Roma 30%.

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