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Poisson rates Atalanta at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Cremonese encounter.

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Match Analysis

Atalanta host Cremonese at New Balance Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Atalanta — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Atalanta's home record at New Balance Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at New Balance Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cremonese's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Atalanta have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Atalanta's 30% rate and Cremonese's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atalanta, 0 for Cremonese and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Atalanta in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Cremonese in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 49% versus Cremonese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 46% | Cremonese 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.73 xG and Cremonese 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.210 / defence 0.725 | Cremonese attack 0.581 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.207. Atalanta's defence rating of 0.725 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Atalanta games / 23 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Atalanta 67% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 10%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.49 | Draw 4.35 | Cremonese 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (67%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Cremonese's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 30% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.

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