Bologna 0-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bologna face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bologna welcome AS Roma to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 25 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bologna — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Bologna have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, AS Roma have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AS Roma's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.50 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Bologna, 2 for AS Roma and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Bologna 0–1 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus AS Roma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | AS Roma 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.16 xG and AS Roma 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.824 / defence 1.098 | AS Roma attack 1.060 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.138. Data: built from Bologna's last 71 games and AS Roma's last 71.
Result probabilities: Bologna 33% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.06 | Draw 3.71 | AS Roma 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bologna 30% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 33% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Bologna 1.16 / AS Roma 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.824 / def 1.098 | AS Roma attack 1.060 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.32
AS Roma xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Bologna vs AS Roma kick off?
Bologna vs AS Roma kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Bologna 0 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Bologna vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs AS Roma part of?
Bologna vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 33% chance of winning, AS Roma a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bologna and AS Roma will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Bologna vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bologna's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 71 games and AS Roma's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.71
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.49
1.32
AS Roma xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bologna and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bologna and 1.32 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 30W 20D 21L from 71 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 38W 13D 20L across 71 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.55 PPG, AS Roma on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 16W 9D 10L from their last 35 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 14W 8D 13L across their last 35 away games, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.44 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
Bologna (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Bologna vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 30W 20D 21L in their last 71 games (1.55 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 38W 13D 20L in their last 71 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AS Roma away?
Bologna's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.63 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Bologna or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AS Roma in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: AS Roma have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Bologna's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
3
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AS Roma?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 4, AS Roma have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AS Roma?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 49%, AS Roma 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bologna) and 34% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; AS Roma in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and AS Roma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Bologna's recent matches and 46% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bologna's recent games and 34% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 51% of Bologna's recent matches and 63% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Bologna 0-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.16 xG and AS Roma 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against AS Roma attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 33% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, AS Roma 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.55 PPG, AS Roma 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 34
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →