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Poisson model favours Bologna (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face Cagliari.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bologna have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 2W 1D 7L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season.

Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Cagliari's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Bologna's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Across 7 previous meetings, Bologna are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Bologna winning.

The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 51% versus Cagliari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Cagliari 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.23 xG and Cagliari 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.755 / defence 1.144 | Cagliari attack 0.846 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.126. Bologna's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Bologna games / 72 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 32%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Cagliari 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 30% | Cagliari 70%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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