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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.

Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Roma 1.50 PPG, Fiorentina 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for AS Roma, 3 for Fiorentina and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with AS Roma winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

AS Roma trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Fiorentina trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 42% versus Fiorentina 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 38% | Fiorentina 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.73 xG and Fiorentina 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.237 / defence 0.779 | Fiorentina attack 1.056 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.111. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 AS Roma games / 72 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 19%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Fiorentina 5.26. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 40% | Fiorentina 70%.

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